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Stay aligned with key macro events, sentiment shifts, and market developments.

AI bubble a "key downside risk" to U.S. economy, OECD warns

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning in its semiannual projection that a potential AI-driven stock market bubble poses a significant downside risk to the U.S. economy. While the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, the OECD forecasts a slowdown to 1.7% in 2026, with a modest recovery to 1.9% in 2027. The OECD notes that current optimism around artificial intelligence investments has buoyed equity markets, but a correction in these markets could destabilize economic growth. Additionally, the labor market is projected to weaken and inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to persist. Globally, economic activity in 2026 is also anticipated to slow due to trade impacts and political uncertainties. The OECD highlights that the broader financial market risks in the current environment are substantial and merit close observation.

How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 12/5/2025

On Friday, December 5, 2025, U.S. stock indexes saw modest gains, bringing the S&P 500 near its all-time high. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2% to 6,870.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.2% to 47,954.99, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.3% to 23,578.13. However, the Russell 2000, a key index for smaller companies, dipped 0.4% to 2,521.48. This marked a relatively calm week for Wall Street after a period of volatile trading. Ulta Beauty notably boosted market sentiment with a stronger-than-expected profit and positive holiday sales outlook. For the week, the major indexes posted gains: the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.8%. Year-to-date, the indexes showed strong performance, with the Nasdaq leading at a 22.1% increase, followed by the S&P 500 at 16.8%, the Russell 2000 at 13.1%, and the Dow at 12.7%.

Wall St gains as PCE data boosts Fed rate-cut bets

On December 5, 2025, Wall Street advanced as investors responded positively to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which showed core inflation at 2.8% year-on-year for September—slightly below the expected 2.9%. This data, delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown, strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Market sentiment further improved following the University of Michigan’s December survey, which indicated easing inflation expectations among consumers. Federal Funds futures suggest an 87% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with more cuts expected by mid-2026, despite ongoing labor market resilience. Market indexes responded favorably: the Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.46%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.56%. In corporate news, Warner Bros. Discovery shares jumped 3.2% following Netflix’s $72 billion acquisition of a major Hollywood asset. Meanwhile, Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell after weak revenue forecasts, and Oklo declined 6.3% amid a $1.5 billion share sale. Cooper Companies rose 8.3% on news of a strategic business review. The small-cap Russell 2000 outpaced the broader market with a 1.2% gain.

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