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US stock market comeback tests investor faith in rotation to Europe
In the second quarter of 2025, the U.S. stock market, led by a 10% rise in the S&P 500, has outperformed European markets, challenging earlier investor expectations of a shift away from U.S. exceptionalism. European stocks, reflected in the Stoxx Europe 600, rose only 2% in the same period, despite gaining 7% year-to-date versus the S&P’s 5%. Investor sentiment had previously favored Europe, buoyed by optimism over Germany’s €1 trillion defense and infrastructure plan, yet recent underperformance and weak economic data have tempered this enthusiasm. In contrast, the U.S. market has been boosted by strong employment data, aggressive stock buybacks, and a renewed surge in tech stocks, including Nvidia, Palantir, and Coinbase. The continued dominance of Big Tech has stalled the expected broadening of equity gains. Some analysts maintain that a global diversification trend is underway, noting currency effects and valuation concerns. With uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies and the expiration of the tariff pause, volatility may return. Strategists caution that while Europe's outlook remains promising, expectations may have risen too quickly and the true market balance lies between overly optimistic views of either region.
Read MoreShares rise in Asia as US-Canada trade talks revived
Asian share markets rose on Monday amid renewed optimism as the U.S. and Canada resumed trade negotiations, with Canada withdrawing its digital services tax to facilitate talks. A new target date of July 21 was set for finalizing a deal, possibly extending to September. At the same time, markets are watching the slow progress of a significant U.S. tax and spending bill, which could add $3.3 trillion to the national deficit. Positive sentiment supported tech stocks in the U.S., with Nasdaq and S&P futures gaining, while Asian indices such as Japan's Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi also saw notable increases. The U.S. dollar weakened due to concerns over potential softening in the upcoming payroll data, with forecasts indicating a possible rise in unemployment to 4.3% or higher. This fuels speculation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July. Treasury yields remained stable, but the dollar slipped against key currencies, including the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar. Analysts suggest continued dollar weakening could escalate if trends persist. Meanwhile, gold slightly dipped due to improved risk sentiment, while oil prices continued to slide due to OPEC+ output plans, extending last week’s 12% decline.
Read MoreUS stocks add a bit more to their all-time high
U.S. stocks continued their upward trend on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, the Dow Jones gaining 166 points (0.4%), and the Nasdaq also rising 0.2%, adding to Wall Street's second consecutive winning month. The rebound follows a springtime sell-off of roughly 20%. Positive developments in U.S.-Canada trade relations, including Canada's reversal on a proposed tax on U.S. tech firms, contributed to investor optimism. Market gains were also buoyed by strong performances from companies such as Oracle, which saw a 4.5% rise, and GMS, whose shares rose 11.8% following a $5.5 billion acquisition deal by a Home Depot subsidiary. Tech firms Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Juniper Networks also surged after progress on their merger plan. Bank stocks climbed after the Federal Reserve deemed them strong enough to weather economic downturns. Meanwhile, Treasury yields dipped ahead of key economic reports, particularly Thursday’s jobs report, which is expected to show a hiring slowdown. The Federal Reserve remains cautious on interest rate decisions, awaiting more data on tariffs’ impact, though President Trump continues to advocate for rate cuts. Global markets saw mixed results, with Asian indexes fluctuating as manufacturing activity in China showed slight improvement.
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